How long will my money last in retirement?
Give a balance, a yearly withdrawal and a return after inflation: the calculator counts how many years the money pays before it runs out.
Your money lasts
26.1 years
Withdrawal rate 6.0 %.
| With 2 points less return | 20 years |
| With 2 points more | 49.3 years |
| With no return at all | 16.7 years |
Worked out by Radif Partners · How we calculate · figures read on irs.gov and healthcare.gov · not personal financial advice
How long your money lasts in retirement depends on two numbers more than on the size of the portfolio: the share you withdraw each year and the return you earn after inflation. A $1,000,000 portfolio paying $40,000 a year, a 4 % withdrawal rate, lasts 25 years with no real return, about 34 years at 2 %, 44.1 at 3 % and 83.1 at 4 %. Someone stopping at 45 needs money until 95 or later, a 50-year horizon, much longer than the thirty years behind most rules of thumb. Over 50 years the highest rate that holds is 3.1 % at a 2 % real return, 3.7 % at 3 % and 4.4 % at 4 %, with withdrawals kept level in today's dollars and taken at the start of each year.
What the count assumes
The calculator takes the withdrawal at the start of each year, lets the remainder earn the return you set and repeats until the balance cannot pay a full year. The withdrawal stays the same in today's dollars, which means it rises with prices in nominal terms, and the return you type is therefore a real return, after inflation. The answer is the number of years, with a fraction for the last partial one. The calculation has no randomness: it gives the path for one steady return, and the order in which good and bad years arrive is a separate risk, measured further down.
A million dollars at your withdrawal
Your money lasts
44.1 years
| With 2 points less return | 28.6 years |
| With 2 points more | 100 years or more |
| With no return at all | 25 years |
Years of withdrawals, by rate and by return
| Withdrawal rate | 0 % real | 2 % real | 3 % real | 4 % real | 5 % real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 % | 33.3 | 53.5 | 100+ | 100+ | 100+ |
| 3.5 % | 28.6 | 41.5 | 60.4 | 100+ | 100+ |
| 4.0 % | 25 | 34 | 44.1 | 83.1 | 100+ |
| 4.5 % | 22.2 | 28.9 | 35.3 | 49.2 | 100+ |
| 5.0 % | 20 | 25.1 | 29.6 | 37.4 | 62.4 |
| 6.0 % | 16.7 | 20 | 22.5 | 26.1 | 32.4 |
The left column is plain division: with no return at all, 4 % a year lasts exactly 25 years, 5 % lasts 20. Any positive real return stretches that. The cells marked 100+ are where the return covers the withdrawal, more or less, and the balance never shrinks to zero; that is the zone an early retiree looks for, since nobody knows how long they will live.
Two readings matter. Between 3 % and 4 % of real return, a 4 % rate moves from about 44.1 years to 83.1: the return assumption decides whether the plan is tight or comfortable. And at 6 % withdrawals, no line of the table reaches forty years. A rate that high only works for a short retirement or with another income arriving later.
A fifty-year horizon from age 45
Retiring at 45 changes the question. The money may have to pay until 95, and the Single Life Table the IRS uses for required distributions gives a 45-year-old 41 more years on average (26 CFR 1.401(a)(9)-9); an average means many people live longer. The table below turns the problem round: for each real return, the highest withdrawal rate that still lasts the full horizon, and what it means on $1,000,000.
| Real return | Highest rate lasting 30 years | Highest rate lasting 50 years | Yearly withdrawal on $1,000,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 3.3 % | 2.0 % | $20,000 |
| 2 % | 4.3 % | 3.1 % | $31,000 |
| 3 % | 4.9 % | 3.7 % | $37,000 |
| 4 % | 5.5 % | 4.4 % | $44,000 |
| 5 % | 6.1 % | 5.2 % | $52,000 |
Going from a thirty-year to a fifty-year horizon costs between 0.9 and 1.3 points of withdrawal rate across these returns. On a million dollars, that is several thousand dollars a year of spending, or several years of extra work to build a larger portfolio. It is the main reason early retirees often plan on 3.5 % rather than 4 %, a choice the 4 % rule page discusses.
Same average, different order
A steady return is a convenient fiction. Take $1,000,000 with $40,000 a year over 50 years and an average real return of 4 %. If two years of -20 % come first and the other years make up the average, the portfolio ends at $0, running dry in year 27. If the same two bad years come last, it ends at $1,545,090. The average is identical; the withdrawals taken while the balance is down are what make the gap.
Two bad years at the start of a long retirement
Same average return, bad years first: money left
$0
| Bad years first, end balance | $0 |
| Bad years last, end balance | $1,964,958 |
| Return in the other years | 5.2 % |
| Runs out (bad years first) | year 22 |
When only part of the money can be reached
For someone stopping at 45, the portfolio is not one pot. Money in a 401(k) or a traditional IRA is mostly locked for another 14.5 years, until 59½, unless an exception applies. Suppose $350,000 of the $1,000,000 sits in a brokerage account and Roth contributions, and the rest in pre-tax accounts. At $40,000 a year and a 3 % real return, the reachable part lasts 10 years, to about age 55, 4.5 years short of 59½. The portfolio as a whole would last decades; the reachable slice would not. Closing that gap is what a Roth ladder or a 72(t) series is for, and the bridge page compares them.
The three extra lines of the calculator help here too. Typing only the reachable balance, then reading the line with two points less return, shows how fragile the early years are if markets start badly.
What this count leaves out
The withdrawal here is what leaves the portfolio, so taxes on it come out of the same figure. A dollar from a traditional 401(k) is ordinary income, a dollar from a brokerage account is partly a gain, and a qualified Roth withdrawal is tax-free; the after-tax spending from $40,000 can therefore differ by thousands. Before 59½ a withdrawal from most retirement accounts can also owe a 10 % additional tax, and health premiums before Medicare at 65 are part of the spending. Social Security is left out; if you expect it, the true horizon of the portfolio alone is shorter. The early retirement calculator handles taxes, the 59½ rules and premiums year by year, and the sequence of returns page goes further into the order of returns.